The other day, I came across an entertaining article on the ten biggest tech failures of the last decade. Google Glass, 3D TVs and Elon Musk’s hyperloop have all faded into obscurity. Others, like the metaverse, completely lost momentum, but are quietly being reinvented. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement, but technology crunches can teach us something.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a good way to understand the ups and downs of new technologies and help companies make decisions about when to invest in new technologies. This is a framework that helps explain why some tech trends take off while others fizzle out. What it does is map the stages that every new technology typically goes through, from the first wave of excitement and sky-high expectations to the inevitable crash when reality sets in, and eventually, perhaps, to steady growth and real-world use. The process begins with the ‘Innovation Trigger’ when a potential technology breakthrough or product launch sparks significant interest and media coverage. This leads to the ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations’ where early publicity results in over-enthusiasm and unrealistic hopes. While some successful applications may break through, failures are just as frequent.
Next comes the ‘Trough of Disillusionment’ where interest fades as the technology struggles to meet expectations. Many applications are abandoned, the technology may fall out of favour and media attention goes elsewhere. The ‘Slope of Enlightenment’ follows, during which some businesses persevere in exploring the technology, gradually realising its potential and discovering practical uses. More reliable solutions and effective applications begin to emerge. Finally, the journey reaches the ‘Plateau of Productivity’. Here, mainstream adoption begins as the benefits of the technology are clearly demonstrated and widely accepted, and the technology stabilises.
Right now, AI may be the hot topic, but it’s still on that same rollercoaster ride and it can also have bumps along the way. Many tech failures come down to not understanding how people actually behave. It doesn’t matter how advanced or cool a product is, if it doesn’t fit into people’s lives in a meaningful or convenient way, it’s likely to fail. Projects also fail due to a lack of funding, poor team collaboration and ignoring market feedback. Resistance to change, unrealistic goals and financial mismanagement can also contribute to a tech flop.
An example is Google Glass. The technology was innovative, but the idea that people would tolerate wearing a camera on their face all day didn’t take off. Apart from privacy issues and the high cost, it just wasn’t something people wanted to wear in public. That was a major miscalculation.
Google’s attempt at building a rival to Facebook with Google+ also fell flat. Users resented being forced to link accounts and engage with a confusing, cluttered interface. Despite its integration with other Google services, it never managed to build meaningful user communities and ended with a breach of data privacy.
Another one is 3D TVs. They required people to wear special glasses and offered limited content for a viewing experience that wasn’t much better than what people already had. Consumers didn’t see enough value to justify the hassle and extra cost, especially when simpler, more accessible technologies like 4K TVs were available. The lesson here is to understand your audience. If a product requires too much change in behaviour, feels invasive or just doesn’t provide enough benefit, it won’t sell. People want solutions that make their lives easier, not more complicated.
Then there‘s the Segway, which was introduced as a transportation revolution, but it was too expensive, too bulky and too ambiguous to meet legal requirements. Most cities didn’t know how to regulate it or what to do with it. It found niche markets in tourism and security, but was never widely adopted.
On the other hand, it’s dangerous to ignore new technology. BlackBerry resisted the shift to touchscreen technology, losing huge market share to Apple and Android, while Kodak’s failure to adapt to digital photography is an example of the risks of not embracing new technologies. Yahoo was once the king of the internet, but threw away many chances to hold on to its dominance. It failed to acquire Google, mishandled Flickr and Tumblr, and underwent constant leadership changes. While its competitors innovated, Yahoo stagnated, and it ended with a final sale to Verizon in 2017.
So, as AI continues to evolve there are some lessons. Look beyond the buzzwords and focus on solid ideas with clear benefits. A flashy launch can only take you so far, but a well thought out plan with real market potential will keep you in the game.
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