Predictions for five to 10 years
Driven by the new paradigm that machines learn, reason and engage in more naturalised and personalised ways, several innovations are starting to emerge. These are enabled by cloud computing, big data analytics and learning technologies all coming together to bring valuable insights when most needed.
Omnipresent computers will keep getting smarter and more customised, helping to take on what may have been seen previously as unsolvable problems.
The new era in computing will lead to breakthroughs that will amplify human abilities, assist in making good choices and help navigate the world in powerful new ways.
With a 30-year track record of accurate predictions, Ray Kurzweil is considered one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists. The Wall Street Journal calls him 'the restless genius'; Forbes magazine says he’s 'the ultimate thinking machine'; INC magazine considers him 'the rightful heir to Thomas Edison'.
Here are the five ways Ray Kurzweil predicts our lives will change:
* By the early 2020s, we will have the means to program our biology away from disease and ageing.
* By 2030 solar energy will have the capacity to meet all of our energy needs. The production of food and clean water will be revolutionised.
* By the early 2020s we will print out a significant fraction of the products we use – including clothing as well as replacement organs.
* Within five years, search engines will be based on an understanding of natural language.
* By the early 2020s we will be routinely working and playing with each other in full immersion visual-auditory virtual environments. By the 2030s we will add the tactile sense to full immersion virtual reality.
To those who consider Ray Kurzweil too far out and IBM more believable, here are IBM’s five technology predictions regarding what will change in the next five years.
* Education: The classroom of the future will go from one size fits all to learning about each student, providing each with a personalised curriculum from kindergarten to high school and on to employment.
* Buying local: Savvy retailers will use super-intelligent technologies and augmented reality in the physical store to create experiences that cannot be replicated by the likes of Amazon.
* Doctors will use DNA: Computers will help doctors to analyse individual DNA to understand the individual patient’s ailments and find the right treatment within days and even minutes.
* Digital guardians: Security systems will acquire a 360-degree view of personal data, devices and applications. Patterns that could be precursors to cyber attacks or stolen identity will be stopped, while maintaining the privacy of personal information.
* Sentient cities: Computers will learn to understand what people need, what they like, what they do and how they move around the city. Learning systems will create real-time understanding of how billions of events occur. Mobile devices and social engagement will enable citizens to develop relationships with city leaders to get attention not just at election time, but all the time.
As we approach 2020, what do YOU expect will happen?
Automation technology picks for 2014
Meanwhile technology is causing accelerated changes in industrial automation.
Here are my top three technology picks for 2014.
Mobile devices: The use of WiFi-connected tablets, smartphones and mobile devices will generate explosive growth this year. Integration of mobile technology boosts productivity by reducing costs and improving operating efficiency with existing resources. Any process that involves collecting data and centralised data entry will switch to mobile data collection. More diagnostics and service functions will become accessible via mobile phones, with cheap 2-way audio and video visibility to aid trouble-shooting and service procedures.
Cloud computing: This is one of the hottest technology growth markets today. Industrial automation manufacturing execution systems (MES) and production planning systems (PPS) are shifting to the cloud. Significant cost and efficiency gains can be achieved as products become more intelligent and connected through the cloud. The key transition point is the shift from an isolated world into the completely connected enterprise, which provides major productivity gains.
Internet of Things (IoT): What GE terms the 'industrial Internet' will transform the next decade, with estimates of 50 billion devices being IoT connected by 2020. IoT is spreading rapidly in industrial plants. The addition of intelligence, via sensors and connected networking technology, takes measurement and control to the next level. Growth will be stimulated by widespread grass-roots usage.
Jim Pinto is a technology futurist, international speaker and automation industry commentator. You can e-mail him at [email protected]. Or review his prognostications and predictions on his website www.jimpinto.com
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