The world is in the middle of the second decade of the new century. In the midst of accelerating technology changes, fragile financial failures and precarious political problems almost everywhere in the world, new societies are emerging – new demographics, institutions, ideologies and problems. Over the next decade, much will change; what we can do is extrapolate the technology trends.
Industrial growth is occurring primarily in international markets where new factories and plants are being built. Several growth opportunities are emerging. The new leaders will be those who can demonstrate that their products and services can yield significant productivity improvements, and navigate the complexities of global markets. Here are some inflection points that will change the leadership line-up:
• Internet of Things (IoT): The industrial Internet will transform the next decade. Intelligent sensors and networks will take measurement and control to the next level, dramatically improving productivity and efficiencies in production. Growth in 2015 will be bottom-up, not top-down.
• Smaller, cheaper sensors: Everyone is looking for or working on smaller, cheaper sensors for widespread use in IoT. Expect fast growth for sensors this year.
• Cloud computing: Cloud computing technology reduces capital expenditures and IT labour costs by transferring responsibility to cloud computing providers, allowing secure and fast access for data-driven decisions. The significant gains in efficiency, cost and capability will generate continuing rapid growth.
• 3D Printing in manufacturing: Today DIY manufacturing is possible without tooling, large assembly lines or multiple supply chains. 3D printing is reshaping product development and manufacturing.
• Mobile devices in automation: The use of WiFi-connected tablets, smartphones and mobile devices is spreading quickly. Handheld devices reduce costs, improve operating efficiency, boost productivity and increase throughput. More and more employers are allowing ‘bring your own device’ (BYOD).
• Robotics: Millions of small and medium-sized businesses will benefit from cheaper robots that can economically produce a wide variety of products in small numbers. The next generation of robots will be cheaper and easier to set up, and will work with people rather than replace them.
• Control system security: In spite of apprehensions over consumer security breach events, industrial cyber security has mostly been ignored due to a lack of understanding of solution costs. Many companies struggle to justify what is seen as added cost to secure their operation. Major security breaches will change this attitude.
The world in 2015-2025
In addition, here are some prognostications for the next decade, picked from the World Future Society forecasts. These are intended to illustrate how different the world will be. Our grandchildren will grow up used to the world being this way and will shape the future.
• Education: A major shift to on-line education and certification is already happening, and will continue steadily.
• Jobs: Advances in artificial intelligence will eliminate human workers. Two billion jobs will be jettisoned by 2030, replaced by jobs that are still developing. There will be big opportunities for technical specialisation, as well as more varied cultural opportunities – music, art and novels, for instance.
• Robot work force: Machines can automate production economically, so marginal labourers will be laid off. The technological boom in robots and intelligent computer systems will proliferate to the detriment of human labour.
• Driverless cars: As automated vehicles increasingly replace human-driven ones, the numbers of deaths and catastrophic injuries will drastically decline, along with lawsuits and the need to insure humans and vehicles against drunk or sleeping drivers, road rage and other problems.
• Speak to computers: Word-meaning models, logic algorithms, and grammar and syntax analysis will accurately predict the meanings of sentences 85% of the time. Tomorrow’s computers will know what people are saying and will be able to tell when someone is lying.
• Robotic augmentation: Robotic exoskeletons will allow wearers to move their arms, legs, and torsos, with mechanical amplification in every motion. Some designers envision senior citizens in civilian life using exo-skeletons to stay mobile even as their bodies lose strength and vitality.
• Brain scanning will replace jurors: Increasingly sophisticated neuro-technologies will enable the legal system to spot when suspects, witnesses and police are telling the truth or lying. As functional MRIs become more widespread, courtrooms will allow brain-wave detection.
• Energy: Futurist Ray Kurzweil notes that solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years while costs have been dropping. He says solar energy is only six doublings (less than 14 years) away from meeting 100% of energy needs.
Jim Pinto is a technology futurist, international speaker and automation industry commentator. You can e-mail him at [email protected]. Or review his prognostications and predictions on his website www.jimpinto.com
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