The future of energy
For two centuries of industrial history, energy technologies have improved much faster than the estimates of supply have receded. New energy sources have always been developed to meet burgeoning demand.
The belief in progress through human ingenuity generates the concept of the 'bottomless well'. This is the seminal thinking in a book by Peter Huber and Mark Mills: 'The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run out of Energy'.
It emphasises that as humanity advances, more and more energy, not just oil, will come inevitably from the bottomless well of technology innovation. Energy supplies will always outpace demand.
The demand for energy can only go up. It signals progress, and energy usage is simply a cheap by-product.
Electricity, not oil, defines the fast-expanding centre of the energy economy. About 60% of US GDP now comes from industries and services that run on electricity. All the fastest growth sectors of the economy, like info-tech and telecom, depend totally on electricity.
Bob Metcalfe, Ethernet co-inventor and founder of 3Com thinks the real goal in the next six or seven decades should be to produce “squanderably abundant, cheap and clean energy”.
Ultra-cheap energy will come from new sciences.
Perhaps we will create abundant biofuels out of algae; oil is a biofuel which has developed in the ground over millions of years; what if we could synthesise bacteria to produce oil from waste products in months? Who will want old-fashioned oil then?
Or perhaps we can use the sun to turn water into high-energy fuel.
We might develop nuclear schemes that don’t require huge power plants, or produce dangerous waste.
Human ingenuity and technology will inevitably achieve these dreams of the energy future.
Kindle-2 eBook
I am an Amazon addict and a gadget freak. This week my new Kindle-2 eBook was delivered. I love it and am half way through e-reading my first book. Plus I entertain myself by reading book samples before I buy.
The original Kindle (Nov. 2007) seemed too clunky, and at US$359 it was expensive; so I decided to wait. In the meantime, I fiddled a bit with Sony’s eBook in the store, but was not impressed.
My wait for Kindle-2 was justified, even though the price (unchanged) still seems high. But heck, if an iPod music player justifies that kind of money, why not an eBook?
Kindle-2 is about the size of a slim paperback and only about 9 mm thick. At 285 g it is lighter than a paperback or magazine. And you do not have to fumble with pages – navigation is easy, with convenient buttons to flip pages back and forth, anywhere you want.
The display is smaller than an average paperback page, but the text is crisp and readable and you can change text size to suit. Visually, it is as good as paper.
You can read for days without recharging. The AC power-cord/charger is slick, with the DC supply built right into the plug, from which you can unplug the USB connector for a PC link. Nice surprise.
Kindle is more than just a book; it reads out loud to you with built-in speakers. Or you can include music (MP3) in the background.
The wireless connection is 3G high-speed Internet, available anywhere, like a cellphone. You can download books anytime, anywhere; no monthly fees, service plans, or hunting for Wi-Fi hotspots.
Kindle gives you a choice of 250 000 books, magazines, newspapers, any of which are delivered directly to your e-book in under 60 seconds. Most books are US$9,95 each, and the 2 gigabyte memory holds over 1500 books. Nice on a plane-ride, or on the beach, or a long-trip.
The company behind the high-contrast, low-power 'electronic paper' screen is E-Ink (based in Cambridge, MA). They have been waiting more than a decade for e-paper to take off. This will be it.
Amazon will not say how many Kindles they have sold to date; the guess is only about 10-15 000. Estimates for Kindle-2 are euphoric – about 500 000 this year and more than a million in 2010. This means more than US$1B revenue for Amazon. If it hits anywhere near those numbers, e-paper and e-books will finally have arrived.
All this excitement is in the face of a dire recession. Indeed, Kindle-2 is a symbol of what is coming with revolutionary new products and value-shifts for new kinds of economic success.
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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